As Labour and Reform UK continue to sit level in the polls, a series of by-elections this week put the so-called “Burnham bounce” to its sharpest test yet.
A series of local by-elections took place across England, with Andy Burnham and Nigel Farage’s parties both defending two seats each.
The contests spanned Nottingham, Cumbria, Barnsley and Huntingdonshire, with Labour, Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats all fighting to hold or gain ground.
GB News has dissected this week’s elections and broken down what they mean for each of the parties.
Leen Valley (Nottingham) – LABOUR HOLD
Starting in Nottingham, where Labour’s Abbas Hussain held on to the Leen Valley ward, winning 689 votes. The seat stayed red, but the scale of the swing against Labour tells its own story.
Labour’s vote share collapsed to 30.5 per cent, down 33.8 points on 2023. Nottingham People’s Alliance candidate Parveen Begum came second with 523 votes and 23.2 per cent, a new challenger cutting straight into Labour’s base. Reform UK’s Stuart Frost finished third with 410 votes and 18.2 per cent, also standing for the first time in the ward.
Green Party candidate Hugh McGuiness received 378 votes, followed by Conservative Gail Stancliffe on 189 and Liberal Democrat Liz Morgan-Danvers on 68. Turnout was 31.82 per cent.
Mr Hussain told the BBC: “The residents of Leen Valley placed their trust in the Labour Party because they know it is the party that unites all communities, regardless of background, ethnicity or where they come from.”
The result leaves Labour with 44 councillors on Nottingham City Council. The Nottingham People’s Alliance has six, while the Nottingham Independents and Independent Group has four. One councillor remains unaffiliated.
The ward sits within the Nottingham North and Kimberley constituency, held by Justice Secretary Alex Norris, who retained the seat at the 2024 general election with a majority of 9,427.
Harraby South (Cumberland) – REFORM UK GAIN FROM LABOUR
The pressure on Labour told in Cumbria, where Reform UK won its first seat on Cumberland Council. Josh Kirkwood won the Harraby South by-election, taking the seat directly from Labour.
Reform polled 46.2 per cent, a new high in the ward. Labour’s Ruth Elizabeth Alcroft finished second on 469 votes, with the party’s vote share down 7.6 points to 33.3 per cent. Conservative candidate Rob Currie finished third with 236 votes and 16.8 per cent, a fall of 18.5 points. Green candidate Rose-Ellen Kemp and Liberal Democrat Stuart Kelly both stood for the first time, taking 2.1 and 1.6 per cent respectively.
Councillor Kirkwood said: “Thank you all again for your support, my Facebook is going crazy at the moment, so don’t think I’m ignoring any of you! I have a really busy day today lined up following my victory.”
Turnout was 27.89 per cent, with 1,320 ballots issued from an electorate of 4,733 and three papers rejected. The result cuts Labour’s majority on Cumberland Council to just one.
The ward falls within the Carlisle constituency, won by Labour’s Julie Minns at the 2024 general election, when she became the seat’s first ever female MP, beating Conservative incumbent John Stevenson with a majority of 5,200.
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Penistone East (Barnsley) – LABOUR GAIN FROM REFORM UK
However, the Burnham bounce gripped hardest in the one seat Labour actually took off Reform. John Roberts saw off Reform UK’s Eunice Asante to win the Penistone East by-election, with Labour’s vote share up 14.4 points to 51.6 per cent.
Councillor Roberts said: “I’m honoured and humbled to have been elected as the next councillor for Penistone East. I’m ready to hit the ground running, working with Alex and Frances, to deliver for our beautiful villages.”
Reform’s vote fell 6.7 points to 23.8 per cent, with Ms Asante taking 795 votes. Conservative candidate Steven John Burkinshaw finished third with 387 votes, his party’s share down 7.6 points to 11.6 per cent.
Restore Britain’s David Wood took 6.5 per cent on his party’s first outing in the ward, with independent Peter Millar on 2.6 per cent. Liberal Democrat Andy Waters fell 3.6 points to 2.1 per cent, while Green candidate Ehren Holt dropped 5.6 points to 1.7 per cent.
Turnout was 38.58 per cent. Reform still holds a majority on the council, with 41 of 63 councillors.
The ward sits in the Penistone and Stocksbridge constituency, once held by GB News presenter Miriam Cates, who lost the seat to Labour’s Marie Tidball at the 2024 general election with a majority of 8,739.
St Neots Eynesbury (Huntingdonshire) – LIBERAL DEMOCRAT GAIN FROM REFORM UK
And Reform’s woes continue in Huntingdonshire, where the Liberal Democrats took a seat off Farage’s party for the second week in a row. Ian Taylor won 1,024 votes in St Neots Eynesbury, with the Lib Dem vote share jumping 29.8 points to 47.9 per cent.
Reform’s Stephen O’Hara finished second on 647 votes, with the party’s own share up 3.1 points to 30.3 per cent, an increase that still wasn’t enough to hold the seat. Labour did not stand here previously, and its return produced just 4.9 per cent for Michael Peter Gilks.
A spokesman for the local Lib Dem branch said: “A huge amount of hard work went into this. But the hard work really starts now. Ian will be getting stuck in, working hard for Eynesbury and representing the whole community.”
Conservative candidate Alexander Pushkarev took 6.7 per cent, down 3.8 points, while Green candidate Anna Lisa Clenachan Pritchard fell 12.5 points to 5.5 per cent. Independent Daniel Laycock polled 4.8 per cent on his first outing.
Turnout was 24.09 per cent. The result strengthens the Lib Dem/Independent/Green coalition running Huntingdonshire Council, putting the party six councillors short of outright control.
The corresponding Huntingdon constituency is held by Conservative Ben Obese-Jecty, who won at the 2024 general election, beating Labour’s Alex Bulat with a majority of 1,499.
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